Field and Garden: Will El Niño bring a mild winter?

It’s likely you’ve heard news reports saying that El Niño conditions have developed for the first time in three years.

El Niño typically causes our winters in North Dakota to be warmer and drier than normal.

That’s welcome news to many people who still remember last year’s record-breaking snowfall.

But forecasters urge caution about building too high of expectations for a “mild” winter in 2023-24.

They remind us that in a typical El Niño winter, temperatures are just two degrees warmer than normal, and snowfall totals decline by just three to six inches.

In other words, we’re still going to experience nights when temperatures drop below zero and days when travel isn’t advised because of blowing snow.

At least one forecaster, Eric Snodgrass, sees evidence that models may be overestimating the strength of this year’s El Niño event.

Snodgrass believes that other factors may play a more important role in determining this winter’s weather. He notes that the weather pattern this fall has been one week of dry weather followed by one week of damp or wet weather.

El Niño or not, Snodgrass sees no evidence that this pattern will change in the next six to eight weeks.

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When I wrote this column on Oct. 20, farmers were hurrying to harvest their remaining soybeans. Most producers only had a field or two left to be done. Few corn fields had been harvested.

Many producers reported that soybean yields were well above average. Not everyone had good news, however. Dry weather hurt yields in some fields along the James River and in the area northeast of Juanita.

Soil temperatures have dropped below 50 degrees at the four-inch depth, which means fall fertilizer application can begin.

The reason to wait for cool soil temperatures is that soil microbes rapidly convert ammonium to nitrate when soil is warm. Nitrate can easily be leached from soil.

Biological activity slows significantly when temperatures drop below 50 degrees, meaning there is a better chance the fertilizer stays put and will be available to the crop next spring.

Spring nitrogen application is always more efficient than fall application. However, some farmers choose to apply fertilizer in fall to avoid costly delays in spring seeding.

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Fertilizer recommendations for 2024 will be one of two topics presented by NDSU Extension soil specialist Dave Franzen during this year’s Central Dakota Ag Day on Friday, Dec. 15.

In his second presentation, Franzen will discuss the economics and positive impacts of reduced tillage on crops and soil.

Central Dakota Ag Day aims to provide farmers and ranchers with the latest research-based information from NDSU.

The program includes 18 concurrent sessions covering topics related to crops, livestock and agricultural life.

The event will be held at the NDSU Carrington REC. Pre-registration is not required.

For more information about Central Dakota Ag Day, you can call me in the Extension office (652-2581) or visit https://www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/ag-hub/events/central-dakota-ag-day.